SUMMARY

 

            Between 1970 and 1990 the Bellefonte Area School District experienced an increase in population from 16,389 to 20,318—a gain of 3,929 or 24.0 percent.  Slightly more than half of the increase occurred in the 1980s.  The largest increases during the 20-year period were recorded in Benner Township  (2,632 or 106.2) and Walker Township (1,095 or 64.2 percent).  Bellefonte Borough recorded the only decrease (470 or 6.9 percent).

            Given the presence in the district of the several significant institutions (e.g., Rockview State Penitentiary in Benner Township and the county home and jail in Bellefonte Borough) which contribute noticeably to the district’s population, it is important to analyze “household population” in the district; that is, the population exclusive of those residing in group quarter (e.g., nursing homes, correctional institutions, dormitories, etc.) which represented 2,213 persons or 10.9 percent of the district’s total population in 1990.  Between 1970 and 1990 the district experienced an increase in household population from 15,636 to 18,105, a gain of 2,469 people or 15.8 percent. During the 1970s the household population in the Bellefonte Area School District experienced an increase of 1,295 or 8.3 percent.  Between 1980 and 1990, the district’s household population rose by 1,174 people or 6.9 percent.  The other component of the population—those residing in group quarters—rose from 753 in 1970 to 2,213 in 1990, or by 1,460 or 193.9 percent.  During the 1970s the number of people in group quarters grew by 402 (53.4 percent) districtwide.  From 1980 to 1990 the district’s population in group quarters grew by 1,058 (91.6 percent).  These figures clearly indicate that more than one-third of the district’s growth in total population between 1970 and 1990 was due to the increase in the number of people in group quarters (largely, those incarcerated at the state prison).

            Population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that the total population of the Bellefonte Area School District grew by 1,108 persons or 5.5 percent between 1990 and 1998.

            According to projections prepared by the Centre County Planning Commission in 1993, the population of the district is expected to increase from 20,318 in 1990 to 23,076 in 2000 (or by 2,758 or 13.6 percent).  Assuming that the 1998 Census estimate for the district is relatively accurate (an increase of 1,108 or 5.5 percent), it would appear that the district is behind the straight-line pace necessary to reach the projected level for the year 2000.

            The number of housing units in the Bellefonte Area School District rose from 5,102 in 1970 to 7,455 in 1990—a growth of 2,353 or 46.1 percent.  Based on the number of housing units authorized by permit from 1990 through the August 1999, there are now 8,352 housing units in the Bellefonte Area School District.  This is 897 or 12.0 percent more than in 1990. 

            Based on information gathered from interviews and conversations with municipal officials and a review of the residential developments approved and underway—and recognizing the uncertainties of estimating the “build-out” in the district’s developments—it is estimated that the number of new housing units to be constructed in the district during the next ten years—based solely on units with final or preliminary approval—could reach 1,348.  Those which are proposed have the potential to produce an additional 758 units.  (It should be noted that these numbers could change somewhat prior to final plan approval.)

            Since 1990, approximately 897 housing units have been constructed in the district.  The ongoing activity could raise the total number of new housing units in the district during the 1990s to about 907—62 units or 6.4 percent less than the number constructed during the 1980’s (969).  Any impact of I99 as an accelerant to growth beyond what is already in the pipeline is not specifically reflected in the estimates of future housing units.  However, all signs tend to suggest that if conditions remain favorable and all approved developments move forward, housing construction during the next decade will be substantially higher than in the 1990s.

            Public school enrollments do not have a direct correlation with population and housing units trends.  During the 1970s the district’s total population was up 1,697 or 10.4 per­cent, housing units increased by 1,384 or 27.1 percent, but public school enrollments decreased by 811 or 20.8 per­cent.  Between 1980 and 1990, while the total population increased by 2,232 or 12.3 per­cent and hous­ing units grew by 969 or 14.9 percent, public school enroll­ments again decreased by 344 or 11.1 percent.   Between 1990 and 1998 the population in the district is estimated to have risen 1,108 or 5.5 percent, housing units grew by 819 or 11.0 percent, and enrollments increased by 233 or 8.5 percent.

            Public school enroll­ments over the next ten years will be dependent more on recent and future births and the composition of the child population than on the overall population pattern.  If recent experi­ence serves as a valid guide, the trends in public school enrollments will not necessarily parallel the trends in population.

            The annual number of resident births in the Bellefonte Area School District, which is of vital importance in the planning process, was slightly higher in the 1980s (on average) than in the 1970s, but the average for the 1990s is virtually unchanged from the 1980s.  Between 1990 and 1998 annual births in the district averaged 263.  This is 1 birth (0.4 percent) higher than the average for the 1980s which, in turn, was 5 births or 1.9 percent higher than the average number of annual births for the period 1970 to 1979 (257).  The average for the 1990s (263) is 6 births (2.3 percent) higher than the average for the period 1980 to 1984 (257) but 4 births (1.5 percent) lower than the average for the period 1985 to 1989 (267).  The overall annual average between 1970 and 1998 is 261 births.

            The number of births in the district increased in 13 of the past 28 years but in just four of the years during this decade; in fact, decreases were recorded in three of the past four years.  During the period 1990 through 1994, births in the district averaged 273; between 1995 and 1998 the average was down to 250.  The preliminary birth figure for 1998 (245) was the third lowest of this decade, 18 or 6.8 percent lower than the average for the 1990s, and 17 or 6.5 percent lower than the average for the 1980s.  Births during the review period were at their highest level in 1970 (307); their lowest level (223) was in 1976. 

            Analyzing the total number of public school children in relation to the total number of housing units in the district produces a more complete picture of the district’s demographics.  In 1970, the number of public school children per housing unit was 0.764.  Between 1970 and 1980, the number of housing units increased by 27.1 percent, and the number of public school children decreased by 20.8 percent, causing the ratio of public school children to housing units to fall to 0.476.  By 1990, the number of public school children per housing unit had decreased further to 0.368—less than one-half of the 1970 figure.  Using a current housing unit figure based on the number of housing units authorized by permit since 1990, the number of public school children per housing unit in 1999-2000 is down to 0.364. 

            PEL’s analysis of births in the district reveals a modest increase in absolute numbers from the 1970s through the 1980s and into the early 1990s, but an overall pattern of decrease has occurred since the high point in 1990.  There was a decrease in the relationship between births and housing units through the 1980s, and this has continued into the 1990s.  The ultimate impact of birth patterns (combined with migration patterns) is that the number of public school pupils generated by each housing unit in the district is dramatically lower in the 1999-2000 school year than it was in the 1970-71 school year, and it is also down significantly from 1980-81 as well.  The decrease since the 1990-91 school year is more modest.  Each housing unit produced less than one-half the number of pupils in 1999 as in 1970 and just slightly more than three-fourths the number as in 1980. 

            During the period 1970 to 1979 resident births in the Bellefonte Area School District totaled 2,574; deaths during this period totaled 1,437.  This produced a “natural” increase in population of 1,137.  The actual change in popula­tion during this period was an increase of 1,697, suggesting that a net in-migration of 560 people had occurred.  Between 1980 and 1989, births totaled 2,620 and deaths totaled 1,733.  This produced another natural increase 887, but the dis­trict’s actual population count increased by 2,232 during this period, indicating that a net in-migration of 1,345 people had occurred during the decade of the 1980s.  Between 1990 and 1998, births totaled 2,365 and deaths totaled 1,606 producing still another natural increase of 759.  The district’s population was estimated to have increased by 1,108 during this period  suggesting that—if ­the population estimates are accurate—a net in-migration continued but at a slower rate, totaling just 349 persons through 1998.

            Overall, for the period 1970 to 1998 resident births in the Bellefonte Area School District totaled 7,559, while deaths during this period totaled 4,776.  This produced a natural increase in population of 2,783.  The actual change in total popula­tion during this period, however, was an increase of 5,037, suggesting that in-migration totaled 2,254—weighted most heavily by the experience of the 1980s.

            A review of the relationship between enrollments in the district and births in the years corresponding to the ages of children in school provides a perspective on the effect of migration.  The cumula­tive number of births recorded in the district during cal­endar years 1982 through 1994 (which would roughly represent children in grades K-12 for the 1999-2000 school year) was 3,461; the number of children enrolled in the Bellefonte Area School District in this school year is 3,044, or 88.0 per­cent of the corresponding births.  The relation­ship of children in public school to the sum of the births in the appropriate years has increased in most of the years during the review period.  The relationship averaged 85.7 percent throughout the review period—84.9 percent for the period 1989-90 to 1994-95 and 86.7 percent for the period 1994-95 through 1999-2000.  The relationship of Bellefonte Area’s enrollments to the sum of births was at its highest point (88.0 percent) in 1999-2000; its lowest point (83.4 percent) was in 1989-90.

            Changes in enrollments by grade within the public school system can reflect many factors in addition to mi­gration; e.g., promotion policies, shifts to and from special classes, shifts to and from nonpublic schools, and sometimes withdrawals—the latter particularly in grades 11 and 12.  However, any large migration would be reflected in a comparison of the number of pupils in corresponding grades over a period of years.  In 1993-94 there were 678 pupils in grades 1-3 in the district.  Three years later (1996-97) when the bulk of this group would be in grades 4-6, the number was 676 (2 pupils or 0.3 percent less than in 1993-94).  In 1999-2000 (three years later), when these pupils would be in grades 7-9, the number was 712—36 (5.3 per­cent) more than in 1996-97, and 34 (5.0 per­cent) more than in 1993-94.  In 1999-2000 the number of pupils in grades 4-6 totaled 723—6 (0.8 per­cent) more than in grades 1-3 three years earlier.  In 1993-94 the number of pupils in grades 4-6 totaled 658; three years later when the children were in grades 7-9, the total was 720—up by 62 or 9.4 percent.  When these children reached grades 10-12 in 1999-2000, the number had decreased to 670 or by 50 or 6.9 percent from three years prior.  This figure was, however, 12 or 1.8 percent higher than in 1993-94 when these pupils were in grades 4-6.  A decrease (81 or 11.8 percent) was recorded in the number of pupils in grades 10-12 in 1996-97 from the levels in the three previous grades three years earlier.

            In-migration of total population in the Bellefonte Area School District is evident during the review period.  The relationship between cumulative births in the district and the district’s total public and non public enrollments, however, suggests that there is out-migration of pre- and school aged children which, for the most part, has been slowing since the early 1990s.  In spite of the out-migration of pre- and school age children, public school enrolments in the district increased during most years of the 1990s largely on the strength of growing births during the mid- and late-1980s.  Analysis of the movement of children through the public school system during the mid- and late-1990s reveals evidence of very modest net in-migration essentially in all grades (although there has been a slight loss in the high school grades).  The higher birth figures of the mid- and late-1980s have also resulted in first grade classes which have been larger than the graduating senior classes they replaced. 

            Enrollments in the Bellefonte Area School District were 12.0 percent (325 pupils) higher in the 1999-2000 school year than in 1989-90.  Increase were recorded in all years during this period except 1996-97 and 1998-99, when enrollments decreased by 8 (0.3 percent) and 20 (0.7 percent), respectively.  The largest increase (82 or 2.9 percent) was experienced in 1994-95; the smallest (9 or 0.3 percent) occurred in 1991-92.  Enrollments rose by 196 or 7.2 percent (39 pupils or 1.4 percent yearly, on average) during the period 1989-90 to 1994-95; since 1994-95 enrollments recorded a net increase of 129 or 4.4 percent (an average net annual growth of 26 pupils or 0.9 percent).  In the current school year total enrollments rose by 67 or 2.3 percent.

            Analysis of all progression ratios for the most recent five years reveals that the sum of the individual grade ratios rose in two years and decreased in two years, and exceeded the “neutral” migration figure of 12.0 in just two years.  In 1995-96 the ratios totaled 12.0141; in 1996-97 the figure decreased to 11.7570.  In 1997-98 the ratio grew to 11.9332 and then decreased again in 1998-99 to 11.8797.  In 1999-2000 the figure rose to 12.2215 (its highest point during the review period).

            The impact of the district’s progression ratios is clearly demonstrated by measuring their effect on children entering kindergarten and then moving through each of the grades.  Using the grade-by-grade progression ratios for 1999-2000, 100 children entering kindergarten this year would, in theory, increase to 118 fifth grade pupils, grow to 124 eighth grade pupils, peak at 132 ninth grade pupils before decreasing to 124 pupils in the twelfth grade.  Using the grade-by-grade progression ratios for school year 1996-97, however, suggests that 100 children entering kindergarten that year would, in theory, decrease to 99 fifth grade pupils and to 97 eighth grade pupils, before rising to a high point of 108 ninth grade pupils before dropping to 76 pupils in the twelfth grade.  In practice, these patterns would not necessarily materialize precisely as outlined due to changes in progression ratios over time.  However, the theoretical impact of the progression ratios based on these points of reference reveals the effect of the migration of school-age children, transfers into and out of the public school system and special programs, promotion policies, dropouts, and so forth.          

            Based on PEL projections, enrollments in the Bellefonte Area School District will total 3,111 in the 2004‑05 school year.  This figure is 67 pupils (2.2 per­cent) higher than the 1999-2000 level and continues the slowed rate of growth in the district’s total enrollments which has been noticeable in the second half of the 1990s.  Increases are projected for all years—the largest (24 or 0.8 percent) is expected to occur in 2001-02; the smallest (8 or 0.3 percent) is projected for 2002-03.  The overall projected increase averages 13 pupils yearly.

            Projections of elementary enrollments (grades K-5) suggest that they will total 1,318 in 2004-05 and be 114 pupils or 8.0 percent lower than in 1999-2000, reflecting the changing pattern of births in the district in the 1990s.  Decreases are projected for all years during this period—the largest (43 or 3.0 percent) is expected to occur in 2001-02; the smallest (7 or 0.5 percent) will be in 2000-01.  The overall projected decrease averages 23 pupils yearly.

            Projections for the middle school (grades 6-8) indicate that enroll­ments will total 781 in 2004-05 and be 87 or 12.5 percent higher than in 1999-2000 reflecting the movement through these grades of the higher number of elementary pupils in the late 1990s.  Increases are projected for all years except 2004-05, when enrollments will decrease by 18 (2.3 percent).  The largest increase (38 or 5.1 percent) will occur in 2002-03; the smallest increase (12 or 1.5 percent) is expected in 2003-04.  The pro­jected average annual net increase is 17 pupils. 

            Projections for the high school (grades 9-12) indicate that enroll­ments in 2004-05 will be higher by 94 or 10.2 percent reaching 1,012, continuing the pattern of growth apparent throughout the 1990s.  Increases are projected in all years except 2000-01, when they will decrease by 4 (0.4 percent).  The largest increase 49 or (5.1 percent) is expected in 2004-05; the smallest increase (3 or 0.3 percent) will occur in 2002-03.  The pro­jected average annual net increase is 19 pupils.

            In order to provide a long-term perspective while recognizing methodological limitations, extended projections of the district’s enroll­ments have been prepared through the 2009-10 school year.

            If births hold steady at the average level of the past three years (249), even with the annual number of new housing units accelerating as discussions with municipal officials indicated, between 2004-05 and 2009-10 total enrollments will begin to decrease and fall by 90 or 2.9 percent to 3,021 in 2009-10.  Total enrollments in 2009-10 will be just 23 or 0.8 percent lower than in 1999-2000 given the increase of 67 pupils projected between 1999-2000 and 2004-05.  During the extended period decreases in total enrollments will be recorded in all years except 2005-06, when they will be unchanged from the previous year.  The largest decrease (40 or 1.3 per­cent) will be in 2009-10.  The annual decrease during the extended period will average 18 pupils compared with an increase of 13 pupils per year during the first five projected years.

            The extended projections for the elementary grades (K-5) suggest that enrollments will be 10 pupils (0.8 percent) lower in 2009-10 than in 2004-05.  Elementary enrollments in 2009-10 will total 1,308 and be 124 or 8.7 percent lower than the 1999-2000 level in view of the decrease of 114 projected for the first five years of the projection period.  The largest decrease (11 or 0.8 percent) is expected in 2005-06.  In 2007-08 enrollments will rise by 11 or 0.8 percent, and in 2006-07 they will be unchanged from the previous year.  The net decrease in elementary enrollments during the extended period will average 2 pupils yearly compared with a decrease of 23 per year during the first five projected years.

            Middle school enrollments (grades 6-8) are expected to decrease by 79 or 10.1 percent between 2004-05 and 2009-10 as the lower numbers of projected elementary pupils from the early 2000s to move through these grades.  Decreases will be experienced in all years in this period except 2009-10, when they will increase by 4 (0.6 percent).  The largest decrease (30 or 4.1 percent) will be in 2007-08; the smallest decrease (4 or 0.6 percent) is expected in 2008-09. During the extended period the net decrease in middle school enrollments will average 16 pupils yearly compared with an increase of 17 pupils per year during the first five projected years.  Enrollments in 2009-10 will be 8 pupils or 1.2 percent higher than in 1999-2000 given the increase of 87 pupils projected during the period 1999-2000 to 2004-05. 

            High school enrollments (grades 9-12) will begin to decrease during the extended period as the lower numbers of pupils in the lower grades in earlier years finally reach these levels.  However, in 2009-10 high school enrollments will total 1,011 and be just 1 pupil or 0.1 percent lower than in 2004-05.  The 2009-10 enrollment figure will still be 93 pupils or 10.1 percent higher than in 1999-2000 given the increase of 94 pupils projected for the period 1999-2000 through 2004-05.  Increases will be recorded in the first three years during the extended period followed by two decreases.  The largest increase will occur in 2005-06 (41 or 4.1 percent); the largest decrease (40 or 3.8 percent) is expected in 2009-10.  The net annual decrease during the extended period will average less than 1 pupil yearly compared with an average annual increase of 19 pupils per year during the first five projected years. 

            In order to supplement the analysis of aggregate enrollment trends and projections, PEL reviewed and analyzed historical trends in enrollments by grade at each of the district’s four elementary buildings and generated estimates of enrollments for these grades and buildings covering the next five years.

In a district like Bellefonte Area where there is more than one elementary building, enrollments for these grades can be precisely projected on a building-by-building basis only if the district does not utilize an open enrollment policy, attendance areas correspond to municipal boundaries, and they have been unchanged for the past five years, or if there is no open enrollment policy, attendance areas have been unchanged for the past five years, and the district’s census data can reliably identify births by attendance areas.  These conditions do not exist in the Bellefonte Area School District.

The failure of elementary attendance areas to correspond to municipal boundaries creates a significant problem relative to aligning birth data with kindergarten entries, which is essential in providing accurate projections on an area-by-area basis using the techniques described earlier.  Birth data provided to PEL by the Pennsylvania Department of Health are by municipality, and they cannot be broken down in any fashion within a municipality.  The absence of birth data on a sub-municipal basis and the inability (as is common) of the district’s census data to identify births by attendance areas required that the techniques used to project the district’s aggregate enrollments be modified in order to estimate enrollments for the appropriate grade levels at each of the four elementary buildings.  Specifically, the modifications involved utilizing aggregate birth figures for the district as a whole rather than on a building-by-building basis and their historical relationship to kindergarten entries in the district’s buildings.  The use of the historical grade projection experience at each building is consistent with the techniques used previously.

            The difficulty of generating accurate enrollment projections increases as one moves from a large base (such as a state) down to counties, to local school districts, and to individual buildings within districts.  Generally, the larger the area involved, the greater the accuracy in terms of the percentage deviation from the projection because differences in smaller areas within the larger area tend to balance each other out.  There is an additional caveat that applies specifically when dealing with enrollments on a building-by-building basis; that is, building capacities have not been taken into account when generating the projections.

            Based on PEL’s projections of aggregate elementary enrollments and the methodology and limitations described earlier, and assuming that no changes occur in current (1999-2000) attendance boundaries, the grade organization structure, and/or policies on “open enrollments”—and independent of building capacities, enrollments in the Bellefonte Building in the 2004-05 school year are expected to total 530—9 pupils (1.7 percent) below the 1999-2000 level.  Two decreases, two increases, and one year of no change are expected during this period.  Decreases will occur in 2001-02 (7 or 1.3 percent) and in 2004-05; (15 or 2.8 percent).  An increase of 4 (0.8 percent) is expected in 2002-03, and in 2003-04 enrollments will rise by 9 (1.7 percent).  In 2000-01 enrollments will be unchanged from the previous year.  The estimated net overall enrollment decrease at the Bellefonte Building averages 2 pupils yearly.

            At the Benner Building enrollments in the 2004-05 school year are estimated to total 222—down by 36 pupils (14.0 percent) from 1999-2000.  Decreases are expected in all years, except 2003-04, when enrollments will be unchanged from the previous year.  The largest decrease (12 or 4.8 percent) is expected in 2001-02.  The estimated overall enrollment loss at the Benner Building averages 7 pupils yearly. 

            Enrollments in the Marion-Walker Building in the 2004-05 school year will total 281 and be 35 pupils (11.1 per­cent) lower than in 1999-2000.  Decreases are expected in all years except 2004-05, when enrollments will increase by 2 or 0.7 percent.  The largest decrease (17 or 5.7 percent) will occur in 2003-04; the smallest (2 or 0.6 percent) is expected in 2000-01.  The estimated net overall enrollment decrease at the Marion-Walker Building averages 7 pupils yearly. 

            Enrollments in the Pleasant Gap Building in the 2004-05 school year are estimated to total 290—down by 29 pupils (9.1 percent) from 1999-2000.  Decreases are expected in all years except 2000-01, when enrollments will increase by 7 (2.2 percent).  The largest decrease (16 or 5.1 percent) is expected in 2002-03.  The estimated overall enrollment decrease at the Pleasant Gap Building averages 6 pupils yearly.

The district’s aggregate elementary enrollments (K-5) are projected by PEL to decrease by 114 pupils or 8.0 percent between the 1999-2000 school year and 2004-05.  Enrollments at each of the district’s elementary buildings will also decrease.  However, the Benner, Marion Walker, and Pleasant Gap buildings will decrease at a greater rate than the district as a whole, while the Bellefonte Building will decline less rapidly.  The Bellefonte Building will decline by 9 pupils or 1.7 percent; the Benner Building will decrease by 36 pupils or 14.0 percent; the Marion-Walker Building is expected to drop by 35 pupils or 11.1 percent; and the Pleasant Gap Building will decrease by 29 pupils or 9.1 percent. 

In 2004-05 the Bellefonte building will have slightly higher proportion of the district’s total elementary enrollments than in 1999-2000—it will increase from 37.6 percent of the total to 40.1 percent.  The Benner, Marion-Walker, and Pleasant Gap buildings, on the other hand, will have slightly lower portions of the district’s total elementary enrollments in 2004-05 than in 1999-2000.  Benner will have 16.8 percent in 2004-05 versus 18.0 percent in 1999-2000; the Marion-Walker building will have 21.2 percent compared with 22.1 percent, and Pleasant Gap will have 21.9 percent compared with 22.3 percent.  (The sum of the estimates for the individual buildings differs slightly from the aggregate figures elsewhere in this report—and referenced above—primarily due to rounding.  These differences, however, have no significant bearing on the general pattern of enrollments in each attendance area.) 

            Accurate projections of public school enrollments for periods of five to ten years or more are difficult, at best, because of so many unpredictable variables.  Further, such efforts are highly dependent on “full disclosure” and accurate and complete data from state, county, school, and municipal officials, as well as the candid views of developers, real estate professionals, and others.  The resulting projections cannot rise above inaccurate and incomplete data.  The difficulty of generating accurate projections increases as one moves from a large base (such as a state) down to counties, to local school districts, and to individual build­ings within districts.  Generally, the larger the area involved, the greater the accuracy in terms of the amount of percentage deviation from the projection because differences in smaller areas within the larger area tend to balance each other out. 

            The best way to assess the potential accuracy of PEL’s projections of public school enrollments is by comparing projections in other districts which relied on similar methodologies with the actual enrollments which PEL attempted to project, and calculating the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).  The MAPE “is the most frequently utilized forecast error measure for quantitative forecast models.  By averaging the percentage errors in absolute terms, the forecaster is being given an indicator of expected error, on average.”  (Howard A. Frank, Budgetary Forecasting In Local Government:  New Tools and Techniques, Westport Connecticut and London:  Quorum Books, 1993, p 82.) 

            Since 1986 PEL’s Central Division has examined demograph­ics, community growth, and enrollment trends in numerous central and eastern Penn­sylvania school districts and, using the techniques employed in this analysis, generated projections of enrollments covering a 10-year period.  Those projec­tions undertaken more than ten years ago have ten years on which to judge accuracy; some projections allow only eight or nine years’ experience to be viewed; some six, five, and so forth; and for others there has been only one year of actual figures on which to make judgments regarding PEL’s accuracy. 

            Based on actual enrollment figures through the 1999-2000 school year, the mean absolute percentage error in all central and eastern Pennsylvania districts studied by PEL for the primary projection period—the first five years—is 2.49 percent; for all years for which there are actual figures to compare with PEL projections (which in some districts include as many as ten years), the MAPE is 3.6 percent.

          Projections represent calculations based on real data and what has hap­pened in the Bellefonte Area School District in recent years.  Because the projections were made on the basis of averages of data which varied from year to year, future enroll­ments can be expected to vary from year to year from these projections.  Although actual enrollments in future years may fluctuate around the projec­tions, over a period of years the projections generated in this manner will normally present a valid picture of the enrollment trend in a given district.

            Uncertain events that can influence and alter pupil projections are such that no projections, no matter how carefully constructed, can guarantee complete accuracy.  Birth data; enrollment patterns (including nonpublic school atten­dance levels); migration patterns; internal policies (such as, retention and acceleration of pupils, age requirements for admission to school, who provides special education programs and to whom they are provided); statewide policies on “school choice” and vouchers; the formation and/or termination of charter schools; economic climate; zoning and land use controls; infrastructure considera­tions; and interest rates—as they influence residen­tial develop­ment activity and the turnover of mature housing—can change and, in doing so, can affect these projec­tions. 

            Also, policy changes by external parties, such as major employers, can have a significant and lasting impact on enrollment patterns as can a teachers’ strike.  As such, various influenc­ing factors must be monitored and analyzed every year by district officials.  In this way, significant changes in current and projected patterns can be quickly identified and the appropri­ate adjustments can be made.

Despite these words of caution, PEL believes the projections offered in this report are as reasonable and as realistic as possible in light of the avail­able facts and they should serve the district well in its short- and long-term planning.