CHAPTER 6

Elementary Enrollment Trends And ESTIMATES by Buildings

 

Introduction

            In order to supplement the analysis of aggregate enrollment trends and projections presented in Chapter 5, PEL reviewed and analyzed historical trends in enrollments by grade at each of the district’s four elementary buildings and generated estimates of enrollments for these grades and buildings covering the next five years.

In a district like Bellefonte Area where there is more than one elementary building, enrollments for these grades can be precisely projected on a building-by-building basis only if the district does not utilize an open enrollment policy, attendance areas correspond to municipal boundaries, and they have been unchanged for the past five years, or if there is no open enrollment policy, attendance areas have been unchanged for the past five years, and the district’s census data can reliably identify births by attendance areas.  These conditions do not exist in the Bellefonte Area School District.

The failure of elementary attendance areas to correspond to municipal boundaries creates a significant problem relative to aligning birth data with kindergarten entries, which is essential in providing accurate projections on an area-by-area basis using the techniques described in Chapter 5 of this report.  Birth data provided to PEL by the Pennsylvania Department of Health are by municipality, and they cannot be broken down in any fashion within a municipality.  The absence of birth data on a sub-municipal basis and the inability (as is common) of the district’s census data to identify births by attendance areas required that the techniques used to project the district’s aggregate enrollments be modified in order to estimate enrollments for the appropriate grade levels at each of the four elementary buildings.  Specifically, the modifications involved utilizing aggregate birth figures for the district as a whole rather than on a building-by-building basis and their historical relationship to kindergarten entries in the district’s buildings.  The use of the historical grade projection experience at each building is consistent with the techniques used in Chapter 5. 

            The difficulty of generating accurate enrollment projections increases as one moves from a large base (such as a state) down to counties, to local school districts, and to individual buildings within districts.  Generally, the larger the area involved, the greater the accuracy in terms of the percentage deviation from the projection because differences in smaller areas within the larger area tend to balance each other out.  The methodological discussion and words of caution contained in Chapter 5 also apply to this Chapter and even to a greater extent given the limited “sample size” and geographical areas involved, and there is an additional caveat that applies specifically when dealing with enrollments on a building-by-building basis; that is, building capacities have not been taken into account when generating the projections.

           

Historical Elementary Enrollment Trends by Building

            Enrollments at the Bellefonte Building totaled 539 in 1999-2000 and were 10 pupils or 1.9 percent higher than in 1994-95.  Enrollments increased in all years except 1996-97 and 1998-99, when they decreased by 20 (3.7 percent) and 3 (0.6 percent), respectively.  The largest increase (20 or 3.9 percent) was recorded in 1999-2000; the smallest (2 or 0.4 percent) occurred in 1997-99.  (See Table 6-1.)

 

 

            In the 1999-2000 school year enrollments at the Benner Building totaled 258 and were 1.5 percent (4 pupils) lower than in 1994-95.  Decreases were recorded in 1997-98 (6 or 2.2 percent) and 1998-99 (13 or 4.9 percent).  Although increases occurred in 1995-96, 1996-97, and 1999-2000, they were not large enough to offset the two decreases.  (See Table 6-2.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

            Enrollments at the Marion-Walker Building totaled 316 in 1999-2000 and were 10.9 percent (33 pupils) higher than in 1994-95.  Three annual increases and two decreases were experienced during the period.  The largest increase (23 or 8.2 percent) was recorded in 1996-97; the smallest increase (8 or 2.5 percent) occurred in 1998-99.  Decreases were experienced in 1995-96 (3 or 1.1 percent) and 1999-2000 (10 or 3.1 percent).  (See Table 6-3.)

 

 

            Enrollments at the Pleasant Gap Building totaled 319 in 1999-2000 and were 1.9 percent (6 pupils) higher than in 1994-95.  Two annual increases, two decreases, and one year of no change were experienced during the period.  The increases were recorded in 1996-97 (11 or 3.5 percent) and in the current school year (13 or 4.2 percent); the decreases were experienced in 1997-98 (4 or 1.2 percent) and 1998-99 (14 or 4.4 percent).  (See Table 6-4.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Elementary Enrollment Estimates By Building

            Based on PEL’s projections of aggregate elementary enrollments outlined in Chapter 5 and the methodology and limitations described earlier in this Chapter, and assuming that no changes occur in current (1999-2000) attendance boundaries, the grade organization structure, and/or policies on “open enrollments”—and independent of building capacities, enrollments in the Bellefonte Building in the 2004-05 school year are expected to total 530—9 pupils (1.7 percent) below the 1999-2000 level.  Two decreases, two increases, and one year of no change are expected during this period.  Decreases will occur in 2001-02 (7 or 1.3 percent) and in 2004-05; (15 or 2.8 percent).  An increase of 4 (0.8 percent) is expected in 2002-03, and in 2003-04 enrollments will rise by 9 (1.7 percent).  In 2000-01 enrollments will be unchanged from the previous year.  The estimated net overall enrollment decrease at the Bellefonte Building averages 2 pupils yearly.  (See Table 6-5 and Exhibit 6-1.)

 

 

 

 

 

            At the Benner Building enrollments in the 2004-05 school year are estimated to total 222—down by 36 pupils (14.0 percent) from 1999-2000.  Decreases are expected in all years, except 2003-04, when enrollments will be unchanged from the previous year.  The largest decrease (12 or 4.8 percent) is expected in 2001-02.  The estimated overall enrollment loss at the Benner Building averages 7 pupils yearly.  (See Table 6-6 and Exhibit 6-2.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

            Enrollments in the Marion-Walker Building in the 2004-05 school year will total 281 and be 35 pupils (11.1 per­cent) lower than in 1999-2000.  Decreases are expected in all years except 2004-05, when enrollments will increase by 2 or 0.7 percent.  The largest decrease (17 or 5.7 percent) will occur in 2003-04; the smallest (2 or 0.6 percent) is expected in 2000-01.  The estimated net overall enrollment decrease at the Marion-Walker Building averages 7 pupils yearly.  (See Table 6-7 and Exhibit 6-3.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

            Enrollments in the Pleasant Gap Building in the 2004-05 school year are estimated to total 290—down by 29 pupils (9.1 percent) from 1999-2000.  Decreases are expected in all years except 2000-01, when enrollments will increase by 7 (2.2 percent).  The largest decrease (16 or 5.1 percent) is expected in 2002-03.  The estimated overall enrollment decrease at the Pleasant Gap Building averages 6 pupils yearly.  (See Table 6-8 and Exhibit 6-4.)

 

 

 

The district’s aggregate elementary enrollments (K-5) are projected by PEL to decrease by 114 pupils or 8.0 percent between the 1999-200