CHAPTER 5

 

ENROLLMENT TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS

 

Past Enrollment Trends

            Enrollments in the Bellefonte Area School District were 12.0 percent (325 pupils) higher in the 1999-2000 school year than in 1989-90.  Increase were recorded in all years during this period except 1996-97 and 1998-99, when enrollments decreased by 8 (0.3 percent) and 20 (0.7 percent), respectively.  The largest increase (82 or 2.9 percent) was experienced in 1994-95; the smallest (9 or 0.3 percent) occurred in 1991-92.  Enrollments rose by 196 or 7.2 percent (39 pupils or 1.4 percent yearly, on average) during the period 1989-90 to 1994-95; since 1994-95 enrollments recorded a net increase of 129 or 4.4 percent (an average net annual growth of 26 pupils or 0.9 percent).  In the current school year total enrollments rose by 67 or 2.3 percent.  (See Tables 5-1 and 5-2 and Graph 5-1.)

 

 

INSERT TABLE 5-2 HERE

            Elementary enrollments (grades K-5) were 145 pupils or 11.3 percent higher in 1999-2000 than in 1989-90.  Increases were recorded in all years during this period except 1991-92, 1993-94, and 1998-99 when enrollments decreased by 11 (0.8 percent), 4 (0.3 percent), and 22 (1.5 percent), respectively.  The largest absolute increase (57) was recorded in 1990-91 and 1994-95; the largest proportionate increase (4.4 percent) occurred in 1990-91. Enrollments rose by a net of 100 or 7.8 percent (20 pupils or 1.6 percent yearly, on average) during the period 1989-90 to 1994-95; in the five most recent years enrollments in these grades experienced a net increase of 45 pupils or 3.2 percent (or an average annual increase of 9 pupils or 0.6 percent).  In the current school year elementary enrollments grew by 26 or 1.8 percent.  (See Tables 5-2 and 5-3 and Graph 5-2.)

 

            Middle school enrollments (grades 6-8) were 110 or 18.8 percent higher in 1999-2000 than in 1989-90.  Six increases, three decreases, and one year of no change were recorded during this period.  The largest growth (58 or 8.8 percent) was in 1995-96.  The smallest increase (6 or 0.9 percent) was recorded in 1997-98.  The largest decrease (37 or 5.2 percent) occurred in 1996-97; the smallest (3 or 0.5 percent) was in 1992-93.  In 1998-99 enrollments remained unchanged from the previous year.  Enrollments grew by a net of 76 or 13.0 percent (15 pupils or 2.6 percent yearly, on average) during the period 1989-90 to 1994-95; in the five most recent years enrollments increased by a net of 34 or 5.2 percent (an average of 7 pupils or 1.0 percent annually).  In the current school year middle school enrollments rose by 7 or 1.0 percent.  (See Tables 5-2 and 5-4 and Graph 5-3.)

 

 

            High school enrollments (grades 9-12) were 70 pupils or 8.3 percent higher in 1999‑2000 than in 1989-90.  Increases were recorded in all years except 1990-91, 1991-92, and 1995-96, when decreases of 66 (7.8 percent), 26 (3.3 percent), and 9 (1.0 percent), respectively, occurred.  The largest increase (58 or 7.2 percent) was experienced in 1994-95; the smallest (2 or 0.2 percent) was recorded in 1998-99.  High school enrollments were higher by a net of 20 or 2.4 percent between 1989-90 and 1994-95 (up by a average of 4 pupils or 0.5 percent annually); in the most recent five years enrollments in these grades recorded a net increase of 50 pupils or 5.8 percent (up by a net average of 10 pupils or 1.2 percent annually).  In the current school year high school enrollments rose by 34 or 3.8 percent.  (See Tables 5-2 and 5-5 and Graph 5-4.)

 

 

 

            The number of Bellefonte Area School District children attending nonpublic schools  increased from 147 in 1989-90 to 279 in 1999-2000, or by 132 or 89.8 percent.  (During the same period public school enrollments rose by 325 or 12.0 percent.)  Increases in the number of nonpublic pupils were reported for seven years during this period; decreases were reported in two years; and there was one year of no change.  The largest increase in the reported number of nonpublic pupils was recorded in 1992-93 (60 or 42.9 percent); the smallest increase (8 or 3.4 percent) occurred in 1997-98.  The largest decrease (61 or 30.3 percent) was experienced in 1991-92. 

            The number of district children involved in home schooling rose from 8 in 1990-91 to a high of 60 in the 1997-98 school year and then dropped to 41 in 1999-2000.

            On a proportionate basis, the number of children in nonpublic and home schools represented 5.1 percent of total district children in public, nonpublic, and home schooling in 1989-90; by 1999-2000 this figure had increased to 9.5 percent of the total—the highest during this period.  The relationship of nonpublic students and home-schooled children to total children in public, nonpublic, and home schooling averaged 7.7 percent during the entire review period.  (See Table 5-6.)

            The methodology employed to generate the projections of the district’s enrollments recognizes the proportion of district children attending nonpublic schools (to the extent possible based on available data), as well as those involved in home schooling and factors in the patterns of the past several years.

 

Mechanics of Enrollment Projections

            Enrollment projections for the Bellefonte Area School District were pre­pared using the  “grade progression” technique, which is based on the ratio of enroll­ments in a given grade in a given year to enrollments in the next lower grade in the preceding year.  The grade progres­sion formula was developed by reviewing the recent experience in the district with respect to pupil progres­sion and modify­ing and tempering that with the various community growth data which were analyzed.  This approach is designed to detect such factors as in- or out­-migration of pupils; transfer of pupils between public and nonpublic schools, and into and out of special programs; withdrawals; promotional policies; and participation in a full-time vocational technical program.