CHAPTER 4

MIGRATION PATTERNS OF THE CHILD POPULATION

 

            During the period 1970 to 1979 resident births in the Bellefonte Area School District totaled 2,574; deaths during this period totaled 1,437.  This produced a “natural” increase in population of 1,137.  The actual change in popula­tion during this period was an increase of 1,697, suggesting that a net in-migration of 560 people had occurred.  Between 1980 and 1989, births totaled 2,620 and deaths totaled 1,733.  This produced another natural increase 887, but the dis­trict’s actual population count increased by 2,232 during this period, indicating that a net in-migration of 1,345 people had occurred during the decade of the 1980s.  Between 1990 and 1998, births totaled 2,365 and deaths totaled 1,606 producing still another natural increase of 759.  The district’s population was estimated to have increased by 1,108 during this period  suggesting that—if ­the population estimates are accurate—a net in-migration continued but at a slower rate, totaling just 349 persons through 1998.  (See Table 4-1.)

 

 

            Overall, for the period 1970 to 1998 resident births in the Bellefonte Area School District totaled 7,559, while deaths during this period totaled 4,776.  This produced a natural increase in population of 2,783.  The actual change in total popula­tion during this period, however, was an increase of 5,037, suggesting that in-migration totaled 2,254—weighted most heavily by the experience of the 1980s.

            The significance of migration for purposes of this examination lies in its effect on school-age children and public school enrollments.  Migration can be highlighted by using school enumeration figures, birth data, and actual enrollments.  

            A review of the relationship between enrollments in the district and births in the years corresponding to the ages of children in school provides a perspective on the effect of migration.  A figure of greater than 100 percent indicates an enrollment figure higher than that resulting solely from the cumulative total of births in the district during the corresponding time period (due to net in-migration in this age grouping); conversely, a figure of less than 100 percent indicates a public school enrollment lower than the cumula­tive number of births (due primarily to net out-migration and/or parents and children opting for nonpub­lic schools or involvement in special programs).

            The cumula­tive number of births recorded in the district during cal­endar years 1982 through 1994 (which would roughly represent children in grades K-12 for the 1999-2000 school year) was 3,461; the number of children enrolled in the Bellefonte Area School District in this school year is 3,044, or 88.0 per­cent of the corresponding births.  The relation­ship of children in public school to the sum of the births in the appropriate years has increased in most of the years during the review period.  The relationship averaged 85.7 percent throughout the review period—84.9 percent for the period 1989-90 to 1994-95 and 86.7 percent for the period 1994-95 through 1999-2000.  The relationship of Bellefonte Area’s enrollments to the sum of births was at its highest point (88.0 percent) in 1999-2000; its lowest point (83.4 percent) was in 1989-90.

            Further insight can be gained by analyzing the relationship between cumulative births and total enrollment (public, nonpublic, and home school) in the district over the same period.  In 1999-2000, for example, according to district figures 320 district children attended nonpublic and home schools.  The total number of district residents enrolled in grades K-12 in public, nonpublic, and home schools in 1999-2000, therefore, was 3,364 or 97.2 percent of the births during the corresponding years.  When nonpublic and home school pupils are included, total enrollment during the review period has averaged 92.5 percent of cumulative births.  The average for the most recent five years (94.4 percent) is higher than the first five years of the review period (90.6 percent).  The relationship of the total school population to births was at its lowest point in 1989-90 (87.9 percent); its highest point (97.2 percent) was in the current school year.  Total public, private, and home school enrollments as a percentage of total cumulative births in the district increased in all years during the review period except 1991-92.  (See Table 4-2.) 

 

 

            Changes in enrollments by grade within the public school system can reflect many factors in addition to mi­gration; e.g., promotion policies, shifts to and from special classes, shifts to and from nonpublic schools, and sometimes withdrawals—the latter particularly in grades 11 and 12.  However, any large migration would be reflected in a comparison of the number of pupils in corresponding grades over a period of years.  In 1993-94 there were 678 pupils in grades 1-3 in the district.  Three years later (1996-97) when the bulk of this group would be in grades 4-6, the number was 676 (2 pupils or 0.3 percent less than in 1993-94).  In 1999-2000 (three years later), when these pupils would be in grades 7-9, the number was 712—36 (5.3 per­cent) more than in 1996-97, and 34 (5.0 per­cent) more than in 1993-94.  In 1999-2000 the number of pupils in grades 4-6 totaled 723—6 (0.8 per­cent) more than in grades 1-3 three years earlier.

            In 1993-94 the number of pupils in grades 4-6 totaled 658; three years later when the children were in grades 7-9, the total was 720—up by 62 or 9.4 percent.  When these children reached grades 10-12 in 1999-2000, the number had decreased to 670 or by 50 or 6.9 percent from three years prior.  This figure was, however, 12 or 1.8 percent higher than in 1993-94 when these pupils were in grades 4-6.  A decrease (81 or 11.8 percent) was recorded in the number of pupils in grades 10-12 in 1996-97 from the levels in the three previous grades three years earlier.  (See Table 4-3.)

            Another factor which is important to recognize—and which can be an indicator of the pattern of future total enrollments in a school district—is the relationship between graduating classes and the first grade classes which replace them in the following school year.  In the Bellefonte Area School District, in all of the years under review, first grade classes have been larger than the graduating senior classes they replaced.  In 1990-91, for example, 230 first grade children replaced 205 graduating seniors from the prior year—an increase of 25 pupils or 12.2 percent.  In 1999-2000 229 first grade children replaced 200 graduating seniors from the prior year—an increase of 29 pupils or 14.5 percent.  During the ten-year review period, the district graduated 1,900 pupils; they were replaced with 2,369 first graders—a total “gain” of 469 pupils or 24.7 percent.

INSERT TABLE 4-3 HERE

            During the most recent five years, the “gain” in pupils ranged from 23 children in 1998-99’s first grade class to 64 pupils in the 1997-98 school year. The average of the relationship between first grade entries and the preceding year’s graduating class during the most recent five-year period was 45 pupils; during the prior five years the average gain was 49 pupils.  (See Table 4-4 and Graph 4-1.)